A mere 60 days prior when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
