Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
